Attention, the space for gold to rise in the short term is continuously being compressed, and adjustments could occur at any time. There is no market that only rises without falling; it is normal to treat adjustments during the upward process without over-interpretation or bearish sentiment towards gold. The bull market is a fact and should not be questioned.

Since October 10th, gold has risen from $2,605 to $2,758 in one breath, increasing by $150 in just ten trading days with almost no significant pullbacks, continuously forcing a short squeeze. Anyone who dared to short recklessly was taken away in a bundle.

On Wednesday, gold experienced a decent correction, with a quick drop from $2,758 to $2,708, a nearly $50 decline. After a previous rise of over $150, an adjustment of $50/80 is quite normal and should be treated rationally. Yesterday continued an upward trend, but in the evening, it was influenced by the bearish U.S. weekly initial jobless claims data, causing a second drop from $2,743 to the morning's starting position near $2,722.

So, how to judge whether the market has peaked or if the rise has ended?

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1: Focus on short-term bullish/bearish transitions by closely monitoring whether the 1-hour low is breached. What is an upward trend? It is characterized by higher highs and higher lows. When a transition occurs, the low will be broken, which is a prerequisite.

2: After breaking the low, if the second rebound does not surpass the previous high, such as the high at $2,758, and continues to fall, whether it loses the previous low, such as $2,708, is crucial. Only if $2,708 is breached again will the short-term rise be declared over, entering a new framework of bullish/bearish contention.

Now, the focus is on whether the high of $2,743 from yesterday will be breached again. If it stands above, the adjustment phase ends. The breach of the $2,708 level means the short-term rise ends. Bullish and bearish are inherently in contention, and price is merely the result of this contention. Establish a framework to recognize direction, rather than making blind guesses centered on oneself. All judgments without basis are wishful thinking.

However, this does not mean that gold has peaked, let alone that the rise has ended. Gold has risen by more than 30% this year, and the view that gold cannot rise has been repeatedly overturned. The more it rises does not mean the higher the possibility of falling; these two are not causally related.

For the current market, I believe the focus should be on whether $2,743 will be breached again, and the key below is the breach of $2,708. Bulls will choose to take profits and exit appropriately, while those who missed the rise want to get on board after the price falls back. Any drop will only be an adjustment, not a sustained bearish trend. After distinguishing the primary from the secondary, it becomes clear what should and should not be done.

Technically, the gold price has fallen from the high of $2,758, and the low below has dropped from the 1/2 position. Today's focus is on whether $2,722 will be breached. If it is breached, it will open up the space to fall further, with a further correction to the $2,703/04 area. The key above is at point B, $2,743, which is the dividing line for bulls and bears today.Therefore, for today's intraday trading, do not chase short positions before 2722 is breached, as only when this level is breached can the bearish trend continue. The resistance for a rebound lies within the range of 2734-36, and short positions can be considered at this level, with 2743 as the dividing point. Friends who plan to accumulate long positions during this adjustment should pay attention to the range of $2680-2700, which is the top-bottom conversion position of the high points during the National Day holiday.